Sunland Park, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

553
FXUS64 KEPZ 152320
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
520 PM MDT Thu May 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Quiet weather and seasonal temperatures Friday, becoming breezy
   on Saturday.

 - Another Pacific storm system will bring gusty winds, blowing
   dust, and critical fire weather conditions back to the area
   Sunday and Monday.

 - Quiet weather returns Tuesday through Friday with temperatures
   warming into the mid and upper 90s in the middle and latter
   part of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1121 AM MDT Thu May 15 2025

Satellite this afternoon shows a weak shortwave currently over the
Great Basin will push across the area this afternoon. Ahead of
the weak shortwave, models show weak troughing forming over
portions of eastern Colorado. This is resulting in breezy
conditions with gusts around 30 mph this afternoon. Some patchy
blowing dust is possible along the International Border and from
Deming west this afternoon. As we head into Friday, the
Borderland will be under a broad longwave trough with west to
southwest winds across area with some afternoon breeziness due to
very weak troughing across far southeast Colorado. Models then
show another shortwave trough moving over the Baja on Friday night
with the GFS showing a closed low for a short period over
portions of far northwest state of Sonora in Mexico. Both
deterministic models then show the open wave moving northeast to
the Arizona/New Mexico state line by Saturday morning. In response
to the shortwave, flow throughout the column will begin to
strengthen with the mid level jet of 40-50kt ahead of the trough
on Saturday. The shortwave will move out of the northern state of
Sorona in Mexico into far southern Arizona on Saturday morning.


Model guidance then shows the shortwave trekking northeast over
the Gila/Black and then into central New Mexico by Saturday night.
As the shortwave moves through the area, this will bring some
breezy conditions to the area with patchy blowing dust.

Attention turns to the next system that will likely bring impacts
to the Borderland Sunday into Monday. Models show a trough diving
south out of British Columbia on Friday night. Both ensemble and
deterministic guidance shows a deepening trough curving out over
the Great Basin on Saturday. On the heels of the first system,
another shortwave with a closed low will dive southeast into the
Pacific Northwest on Saturday night. The closed low and trough
will move into the northern Great Basin by Sunday night. Ahead of
the trough, west to southwest flow ahead of the trough will
strengthen resulting in breezy to windy conditions, some patchy
blowing dust, and critical fire weather conditions on Sunday. Peak
gusts in the lowlands on Sunday with the most current guidance
will be in the 35-45 mph range and 50-55 mph range in the
mountains and higher terrain areas.

As we head into Monday, winds will be roughly around 2 to 4 mph
higher in both the lowlands and mountain areas with more issues
with blowing dust and critical fire weather conditions on Monday
as the mid level jet of 60-70kt is right over the Borderland on
Monday. At this time, winds will come close to the threshold that
would generate wind products. For Tuesday, the main longwave
trough will push to the east into the central Plains allowing for
winds to tamper down as the influence of a ridge over the Pacific
takes hold over the Desert Southwest. As we head into Thursday,
the ridge will push east over portions of western Mexico with
winds over lower Rio Grande Valley with winds turning to
southeast in response to the ridge moving east on Wednesday
night. This will allow moisture to be transported north and
northeastward from the Gulf as early as Wednesday toward the
Borderland. Both the GFS/ECMWF show the deepest moisture remaining
to the east of the area in Culberson county, TX as flow at 700mb
in a more southerly direction. In addition to the shallow
moisture, ridging overhead will likely provide enough substance to
deter any convection though it can not be ruled out entirely, thus
barely mentionable POPs in far southern Hudspeth county on
Thursday afternoon.

Temperatures will hover around normal values for this time of the
year through early next week, then warm into the mid to upper 90s
by the latter part of next week. An analysis of longer term
ensembles shows around a 26% chance of reaching 100 degrees on
Friday, and roughly a 50-60% chance south of Fabens in the lower
valley during the same time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 510 PM MDT Thu May 15 2025

VFR conditions expected through the period with SKC-SCT250...BKN-
OVC250 over Hudspeth County. Also some blowing dust possible until
02Z over El Paso/Hudspeth Counties, though may just result in some
hazy skies. Surface winds west 10-15G25 knots until 03Z, then
west/northwest AOB 8 knots. Winds increasing again after 18Z to
southwest/west 12-17G25 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1121 AM MDT Thu May 15 2025

Near critical fire weather conditions are in the forecast through
Friday as west winds will be breezy, but will remain below
critical thresholds through Friday. Min RH values will remain in
the single digits in the lowlands with lower teens in the
mountains through at least the middle of next week across the
area. By Saturday, enhanced fire weather conditions will return to
the area with breezes from the southwest, very low RH values, and
critically dry fuels as a disturbance pushes through the area. As
we head into Sunday and Monday, as Pacific storm system will
approaches the area bringing strong winds and back to back days of
critical to extreme fire weather conditions to the Borderland. By
Tuesday, a ridge of high pressure will build in behind the
departing storm system bringing lighter winds to the area. A
warming trend appears likely in the middle to latter parts of next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  59  89  64  91 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            55  84  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               50  85  55  85 /   0   0   0  10
Alamogordo               50  85  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               40  62  44  62 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    51  86  56  85 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              45  77  49  76 /   0   0   0  10
Deming                   48  87  54  87 /   0   0   0  10
Lordsburg                45  84  51  84 /   0   0   0  10
West El Paso Metro       59  86  64  87 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                53  88  59  89 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             57  91  62  94 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               55  80  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   57  89  62  91 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             52  85  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           59  86  64  86 /   0   0   0  10
Jornada Range            48  85  54  85 /   0   0   0  10
Hatch                    47  88  55  87 /   0   0   0  10
Columbus                 53  88  59  88 /   0   0   0  10
Orogrande                51  84  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  45  76  49  75 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                42  74  48  73 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 42  71  44  71 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  37  77  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                46  85  51  82 /   0   0   0  10
Spaceport                45  85  50  83 /   0   0   0  10
Lake Roberts             40  78  45  76 /   0   0   0  10
Hurley                   43  80  48  80 /   0   0   0  10
Cliff                    42  83  47  83 /   0   0   0  10
Mule Creek               42  79  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  46  80  51  79 /   0   0   0  10
Animas                   47  85  52  85 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  47  85  53  84 /   0   0   0  10
Antelope Wells           48  85  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               49  79  51  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...17-Hefner